According to Gartner Inc., global semiconductor revenue is expected to reach $ 676 billion in 2022, up 13.6% from 2021.
“The rise in the average semiconductor selling price (ASP) due to chip shortages continues to be a key driver of global semiconductor market growth in 2022, but overall semiconductor component supply constraints are expected to decrease. gradually until 2022 and prices will stabilize as the inventory situation improves, “said Alan Priestley, vice president of research at Gartner.
Overall, the outlook for global semiconductor revenue was increased from the previous quarter’s forecast by $ 37 billion to $ 676 billion (see Table 1). Automotive applications will continue to experience component supply constraints, particularly in microcontrollers (MCUs), power management integrated circuits (PMICs) and voltage regulators, until 2023. Slowing growth in markets is expected PCs, smartphones and servers will gradually slow semiconductor revenue growth as semiconductor supply and demand balance gradually in 2022.
The chip shortage continues in some industries
Chip shortages will continue to be a concern for the electronic equipment supply chain in 2022 and will have different effects in major electronic equipment markets depending on the different types of semiconductor devices. Most semiconductor shortages decreased in PCs and smartphones as production moved into the off-season combined with the increased supply of semiconductors to the market. However, some types of semiconductor devices will continue to be lacking in the automotive supply chain until the end of 2022.
“Although unit production of automotive vehicles will grow below expectations of 12.5% in 2022, ASPs for semiconductor devices are expected to remain high due to continued short supply that will drive the automotive semiconductor market to growth. double-digit (19%) in 2022, “Priestley said. “Automotive HPC, EV / HEV and advanced driver assistance systems will drive growth in the automotive electronics sectors during the forecast period.”
Memory market to drive semiconductors $
The memory market will remain the largest semiconductor device market throughout the forecast period and is expected to account for 31.4% of the overall semiconductor market in 2022. DRAM and NAND are expected to be sub-supplied in the second quarter of 2022. The NAND market will oversupply in the fourth quarter of 2022, while DRAM is expected to oversupply in the second half of 2023. The combination of megabyte shipments and higher annual average ASPs this year will support revenue growth for both. markets in 2022, with an expected growth of 22.8% for DRAM and 38.1% for NAND.
The migration to 5G should stimulate growth
Smartphone semiconductor revenue is projected to increase by 15.2% in 2022, as 5G smartphone unit production is expected to grow 45.3% in 2022, reaching 808 million units and accounting for 55% of all smartphones. products.
Aggressive migration from 4G to 5G from leading smartphone chipset vendors has temporarily led to a shortage of 4G system-on-chip integrated baseband ICs, which began in the second half of 2021. The rise in IC inventory baseband integrated into 5G will result in a drop in prices for the 5G smartphone and further accelerate the penetration of 5G over the forecast period.